From diversifying trade beyond the United States to opportunities arising from AI and the green transition, DBS Bank Managing Director and Chief Economist Taimur Baig outlined where businesses could find growth amid global disruption.
Speaking at the Asia-Pacific Agri-Food Summit 2026, Baig’s outlook centred on two major themes: the resilience of global trade despite geopolitical disruption, and a shift in the centre of technological innovation from West to East.
1. Don’t mistake uncertainty for economic weakness
Baig’s first message was relatively optimistic: “It’s not that bad.”
He pointed to the succession of economic and geopolitical shocks over the past six years, from the COVID-19 pandemic and wars to inflation, interest rate hikes and trade tensions, which notably included Trump’s tariffs and disruptions due to the Middle East conflict.
Yet, he argued, these disruptions have not translated into the severe and prolonged economic downturns that had repeatedly been feared.
“When inflation went through the roof in 2022 and 2023, the view was that we’d have the mother of all rate-hike cycles. It was going to bring demand crashing down through the floor and we’d have a global depression and recession. Absolutely not the case. We took the inflation, we took the high interest rates, we kept on growing, and that’s the test of our resilience,” said Baig.
“Consider global growth over the last six years despite all of the stuff – pandemic, Russia war, Ukraine war, Iran war, reciprocal tariffs. Global growth has remained above 3% through this entire time.”
He also pointed to the relative stability of global food prices over the past six decades, noting that real food prices have remained largely unchanged despite wars and periods of food insecurity.
“How do you think the real food price index has evolved in the last 60 years? It hasn’t. It’s zero. In the last 60 years, the real price of food has risen by 0%. Sixty years of wars and cataclysms and food insecurity, all that stuff included. Our farmers, our technologies, have provided us with amazing solutions. We feed the world very well,” said Baig.
This does not mean consumers are paying the same prices for food as they did 60 years ago. Real food prices account for inflation, meaning the figures are adjusted to reflect changes in the general price level over time. In other words, nominal food prices may have increased, but their inflation-adjusted value has remained relatively stable.
For food and beverage businesses, the message is not that geopolitical risks can be ignored, but that global trade and food supply chains have demonstrated an ability to withstand significant disruption.
Global growth: How resilient has the economy been?
The global economy has weathered several major disruptions over the past six years, although the pandemic caused a sharp contraction in 2020.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF):
2020: Global GDP contracted by 2.7% amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
2021: Growth rebounded by 6.7% as economies reopened.
2022–2025: Annual global growth remained between 3.3% and 3.8%.
2026: Growth is projected at 3.1%.
While the recovery has not been without challenges, the figures illustrate how global economic growth has held up following the pandemic-induced downturn and subsequent geopolitical and inflationary shocks.
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook
2. It’s not all about artificial intelligence (AI)
Baig argued that global trade growth is not solely dependent on the AI boom. While electronics trade has expanded rapidly, he identified two other major growth drivers: the green transition and pharmaceuticals.
Demand for batteries, solar panels, wind turbines, and electric vehicles has surged, while pharmaceutical exports from countries including Singapore, South Korea, and China are also benefiting from growing trade.
“It’s not all about AI,” Baig said, adding that even if the AI cycle were to fall through tomorrow, global demand related to pharmaceuticals and the green transition could would remain intact.
For food businesses, these developments are worth watching as they could create opportunities around more energy-efficient manufacturing, food technology and the intersection of food and health.
Baig’s broader point was that Asia’s growth is supported by several longer-term trade cycles, rather than relying on a single technology boom.
3. Look beyond the US
For companies that have traditionally focused on the United States, Baig encourages them to consider “TOTUS” – trade outside the United States.
He expects tariffs to outlast the Trump administration and the rivalry between the United States and China to continue.
“The US is very large and consequential. You will have to play with the US by US rules,” he said.
But he stressed that 96% of the world’s population and 92% of global trade lie outside the US, creating considerable room for businesses to pursue opportunities elsewhere.
Baig said global trade in both goods and services had been expanding at rates exceeding the averages seen over the preceding decade.
“Since April 2025, global trade in both goods and services has been growing at rates not seen in the previous decade. In 2025, global trade in goods grew by 160 basis points more than the previous decade’s average, while global trade in services grew by 300 basis points more than the previous decade’s average,” Baig said.
“You might argue that this was due to businesses frontloading exports because they were worried about tariffs, and that 2025 was an anomaly. That is not the case. We already have eight or nine months of data for 2026, and we are on track to surpass the growth records for global trade in both goods and services set in 2025.”
This highlights the importance of looking beyond the US when considering export opportunities, particularly as trade within and outside the Asian region continues to expand.
4. Asia shifts from manufacturing to innovation
Baig said that a “tectonic shift” is taking place in the centre of gravity of technological innovation, moving from the West towards the East.
Citing research institution rankings published yearly by scientific journal Nature, he noted China’s growing presence among the world’s leading scientific research institutions, particularly in applied sciences.
“You might expect institutions such as Harvard, MIT and Stanford to lead these tables – wrong. In the latest Nature Institutional Ranking of the world’s top 25 research institutions and laboratories, 17 are from China, and only three American universities are part of this list,” said Baig.
“If you look at Nature’s 2025 and 2026 rankings, including the data up to June this year, China dominates the applied sciences rankings. All 10 of the top 10 institutions are Chinese. Stanford is ranked 38th and MIT 40th.”
Baig also pointed to patent activity as evidence of Asia’s growing innovation capabilities.
“When we talk about Nobel Prizes and consequential scientific innovations today, much of the work is still coming from laboratories and scientists in the US, some in Europe and a few in Japan. However, I would argue that over the next 15 to 20 years, we will see many more Nobel Prizes coming not just from China, but also from other parts of Asia,” Baig said.
The World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) patent data also features major Asian innovation clusters.
According to WIPO rankings, the Shenzhen-Hong Kong-Guangzhou corridor leads in patent clusters, followed by Tokyo-Yokohama, with Silicon Valley in third place. Beijing and Seoul ranked fourth and fifth respectively.
This indicates that China, Japan and South Korea are becoming increasingly important sources of scientific and technological innovation, challenging the traditional perception of Asia primarily as the world’s manufacturing base while the West produces intellectual property.
For the food and agriculture industries, the implications could eventually extend across areas including biotechnology, food processing, automation, alternative proteins and agricultural technology.
Baig’s final message was that the conventional narrative of the West producing intellectual property while Asia serves as the world’s manufacturing base is increasingly outdated.
“The traditional view is that the West generates the IP, while Asian workers put in long hours to manufacture innovative products that the rest of the world consumes. Those on the right side of the political spectrum might argue that this is how Asia takes Western jobs. Dear friends,” he interjected lightly, “That is so 2015, or even 2005.”
The reality in 2026 is that key intellectual property will increasingly come from Asia, with Korea, Japan, and China forming the foundation of all the “earth-shattering, big innovations down the road”, Baig said.
“Western innovation hubs would remain consequential, but boy, do they have competition.”
He said that businesses should begin asking a very different question about Asia: “The key IP will come from Asia. How much are we going to pay for it?”
