Pork shortages will be a key concern going forwards, finds new report

Outbreaks have hit the Americas and Asia, with unaffected regions fighting hard to prevent the disease spreading.

In Rabobank’s quarterly pork report, it predicted the ongoing spread of PEDv would have a material impact on pork supply, not just this summer, but in the years to come.

It said the outbreak of PEDv in the US, Mexico, Japan and South Korea would lead to a likely decline in global pork production in 2014, against an earlier expected rise of 1.3%

Albert Vernooij, analyst at Rabobank, said pork prices had been pushed up to record highs, particularly in the US where pork production is estimated to decline as much as 7%. "US futures climbed 30% in Q1 and are up 45% over last year, impacting pork users’ and consumers’ ability to source enough pork for their needs,"​ he said.

The impact of the virus in parts of Asia is harder to estimate as the extent of the spread of the disease is not known, said Rabobank.

Supplies of pork to Russia are also tight after it banned pork imports from the EU following a recent outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) earlier this year, while oversupply in China is expected to continue, "driven by high sow liquidation",​ pushing prices down further, said the report.

"In China, pork consumption is expected to remain steady in 2014, as hog supply will continue to be at a relatively sufficient level,"​ added Vernooij.  

The import ban in Russia has resulted in a loss of 1.3 million tonnes of imports, said Rabobank – about one-third of its total import volume in 2013.

"This has resulted in short supply and higher prices in Russia, but with North America expected to feel the impact of PEDv for the remainder of 2014, Russia will have few alternatives to fill the void left by the EU,"​ claimed the report.