After-effects of PEDv and export bans see pork market cool
While the peak of the porcine epidemic diarrhoea virus (PEDv) outbreak is seemingly behind us, the global pork industry has since been faced with the fallout from Russia’s import ban, which is affecting the pork industries in the EU, the US and Canada.
Brazil has benefited from the ban, seeing a 30% per kilogram price increase in Q3, with export volumes to Russia up 18% – representing almost 50% of its total export value, according to the report. By comparison, the EU has seen prices drop by 9%, while consumption levels look to remain under pressure for the rest of 2014.
Albert Vernooij, analyst, Rabobank, said: "As Russian markets will not open again until July next year, the wildcard next year will be the possible return of PEDv this winter, cutting back available hogs for slaughter in 2015."
In the US, increasing pork prices driven by PEDv were further supported by increased demand from consumers, who traded down due to higher beef prices. Canada saw a significant reduction in hog prices in Q3, due to rising competition for other markets in the absence of trade with Russia.
Japan has seen pork consumption stabilising despite increasing imports and higher retail prices due to the depreciation of the yen against the US dollar, as well as high-priced competing proteins.
Mexico has been significantly affected by PEDv this summer, with year-on-year slaughter numbers down by 11.1%. However, margins are set to hit a record high this year, due to a drop in feed costs coupled with higher hog prices.
China has seen subdued supply and increasing demand, which is expected to support market recovery and import growth, while South Korea has seen a larger-than-expected supply, which has seen prices drop.
