Modest expansion predicted for global meat trade in 2015
Compiling data from the major meat-producing and exporting countries, the report predicts that global exports of beef and veal will rise by 1.7% in 2015, to a record 9.9 million tons (mt).
The rise in demand is predominantly coming from Asia, particularly China and Hong, while "gains by leading exporters Brazil and India more than offset declines in the USA and Australia", due to high prices and tight supply. According to the report, Australia is likely to see a 7% decline in beef production in 2015, pushing exports down by 10%.
Pork exports are forecast to increase by 3.7%, following two years of decline, to reach 7.2mt, in part due to strong demand from China whose imports are forecast to increase to reach 1mt next year. The import bans currently imposed by Russia will impact this sector of the export market, with imports to the country expected to be lower, on balance, despite its drive to welcome new suppliers and increase imports from countries like Brazil.
It is anticipated that US pig meat exporters will boost supplies by 3% to 2.4mt, on the back on rising demand from Mexico and Asia. Meanwhile, in the EU, exports are projected to increase by 2%, with trade largely shifted to China and South Korea to stem the loss of its largest market, Russia.
Broiler meat is expected to achieve a 4.3% rise in global exports, to 10.9mt, "as a result of gains by Brazil, the USA, Turkey, Argentina and Thailand". Russia has been proactive in increasing its domestic consumption and therefore imports are expected to decline. However, of the countries exporting to Russia, Brazil and Argentina look to benefit the most from increased demand for their broiler meat.
Exports of US broiler meat are forecast to increase by 1% to 3.3mt, "as shipments are shifted towards Mexico, Sub-Saharan Africa and East Asia," following the import restrictions imposed by Russia.
Overall, global production of beef and veal is expected to fall by 1.4% to 58.7mt, while pork and broiler meat are predicted to see increases, by 1.1% and 1.15% respectively, to 111.8mt and 87.3mt. Consumption is also expected to follow the same trend, with beef and veal forecast to dip 1.6%, and pork and broiler meat set to rise by 1.2%. Overall production will rise at a slightly faster rate than consumption, at 0.7% and 0.5% respectively.
US production
US beef and veal production is set to decline in 2015, by almost 2% to 10.9mt, due to lower slaughter numbers. However, the production of pork and broiler meat is set to show positive growth.
Despite the significant impact of porcine epidemic diarrhoea virus (PEDv) earlier this year, the US is expecting to boost pork production by 5% to a record figure of 10.9mt thanks to increased slaughter and heavier weights. Broiler meat production in the country is expected to rise by around 3% to 17.8mt, on the back of increased slaughter, heavier weights and greater demand, given broiler meat’s price competitiveness compared to red meats.
