According to the latest European Commission beef forecast working group, output from the EU-15 this year, could increase by almost 3%, 6.53 million tonnes (mt), driven by increases in Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and France, with notable increases from outside the EU-15 coming from the likes of Poland. Meanwhile, the European Commission Short Term Outlook in March suggested overall beef production in Europe would rise by close to 2% this year.
However, in a market update, Eoin Kelly, business analyst at Bord Bía, the Irish food board, published last week, said Irish supplies were expected to be down by around 7% this year, with the UK expecting to see declines of around 2% in 2015.
In a meeting earlier this month between Copa-Cogeca and the European Commission, Copa-Cogeca secretary-general Pekka Pesonen and chairman of Copa-Cogeca’s beef working party Jean Pierre Fleury underlined "poor prospects" in the EU beef sector.
Fleury warned: "The beef sector is very fragile from a structural point of view and incomes are low. This is particularly serious for specialised beef producers as it is their only source of income. The situation has also become much worse after the EU lost its main export market for beef – Russia. It is therefore crucial that the EU finds additional new market outlets."
He added that meat consumption was "stagnating", and the market is could also be destabilised by further fluctuations in the EU dairy sector "and repercussions in terms of surplus supplies on the market for animals destined for slaughter".
Pesonen spoke of the opportunities and challenges posed by the bilateral free-trade talks between the US and the EU. "The US is our number one client for our agriculture exports. However, we will remain vigilant and do our utmost to safeguard the EU beef sector and our particular production methods. Also, before making further headway in the negotiations, it is crucial to address sanitary and phytosanitary barriers to trade," he said.