Supplies to the Ukraine poultry market have been under pressure since 2016 and this has driven up the average retail price for domestic customers, claimed Natalia Kapitets, senior analyst at the Institute. For instance, the retail price of broiler meat in Ukraine jumped by 31.3% in 2017 compared to the previous year, to UAH28,285 ($1,010) per tonne (t), Kapitets estimated.
Retailers were able to gradually raise prices thanks to an ongoing decrease in supply to the domestic poultry market, Kapitets stressed. Moreover, a further increase in prices of at least 10% compared to the previous year was anticipated by the end of 2018.
In addition, prices for broiler meat in Ukraine have been hit by increasing prices for feed and natural gas throughout the year, she added.
Producers argue
However, the Ukraine Poultry Farmers Association has criticised the report. Sergey Karpenko, director of the Poultry Farmers Association, said in a statement that the strong increase in poultry exports hadn’t had any negative effect on the domestic market.
In the first 10 months of 2018, overall sales of poultry meat in Ukraine increased by 2.2% or 19,000t, compared to the same period the previous year, Karpenko estimated. During this period, production grew by 48,400t, while exports increased by 44,300t against comparable figures in 2017, he said.
Referring to the balance between supply and demand, the Institute of Agrarian Economics had failed to take into account several factors, including a reduction in the country’s population, Karpenko said. This factor, among others, negatively affected demand, while the statement that rising exports were to blame for reduced poultry meat supplies on the domestic market was simply not true, Karpenko claimed.
The retail price for poultry meat in Ukraine is rising. In 2018, it increased 7% on the level seen last year, but this was primarily due to rising costs, said Karpenko. In the first 10 months of 2018, the production costs per kg of broiler meat in Ukraine increased by 17.1% compared to the previous year, he added.
Exports were the only factor that allowed Ukraine poultry producers to maintain development, Karpenko claimed.
Exports soaring
From January to December of 2018, Ukraine increased poultry exports by 22.2% in physical terms to 303,890t and by 32.8% in monetary terms to $472m, according to estimates from the Ukraine State Fiscal Service. This year the US Department of Agriculture ranked Ukraine as the sixth-biggest poultry exporter in the world.
The biggest poultry meat exporter in Ukraine is MHP. In the first nine months of 2018, the company exported 213,925t of poultry meat, 22% up on the same period in 2017. During this period, production grew by 34,000t, while exports rose by 48,000t, the company said in a statement earlier this year.
MHP has seen its poultry exports accelerate in the third quarter of 2018, when the company sold 52% more poultry in markets outside Ukraine than in the same period the previous year. The company increased sales primarily to the Middle East, North Africa and the European Union.
Ukraine imported 121,670t of poultry meat and by-products, worth $49 million, up by 13.8% in volume and 10.7% in value, respectively. Ukraine imports frozen poultry, which is used in the domestic meat processing industry.