Are kids' food sales declining?

Arguably the ultimate in emerging markets, brands have been capitalising on foods, made specifically for kids, for decades. But are parents turning away from these specially manufactured and marketed products, in favour of meals suitable for the whole family?

Well, the simple answer appears to be no, with Verified Market Reports announcing that, “the kids food market size is expected to develop revenue and exponential market growth at a remarkable CAGR during the forecast period from 2023–2030.”

And this projection is supported by Future Market Insights Inc, which estimates that the global market value of the kids’ food and beverages, will reach 253.3 billion USD (approx €231.9bn) by 2033.

But, as we all know, nothing is ever simple. So, while the figures point towards a continued boomtime for kids’ food brands, there’s much more to the story. In fact, market insight firm, Mintel, is reporting that “meals cooked from scratch and those made from prepared and unprepared ingredients are most popular among parents and their children.”

This directly contradicts the economic outlook for the food for kids' market. So why are some parents, and indeed their children, turning away from foods formulated specifically for children? And why are there two contradicting stories emerging?

Why are parents turning away from foods formulated for kids?​

There are multiple reasons as to why parents are no longer buying foods specifically manufactured and marketed towards children, but the big hitters are cost and lack of trust in the food industry.

Cost of buying foods specifically for kids​

Economic and political instability across Europe has led to rising prices in many sectors, including food and beverage. And those rises have been sharp, with the European Central Bank observing that, “the strong rise in consumer food inflation from mid-2021 until early 2023 was observed for both main components: processed and unprocessed food.”

Furthermore, inflation remains above the pre-pandemic long-term average of 2.1%.

This rise in costs has had a huge impact on the spending behaviours of consumers, and part of that is a move away from pre-prepared foods, which are often more expensive than homemade meals.

According to UK brand watchdog, Which?, food prices remain a major concern for consumers, with 85% having equal concern for food prices as energy prices. As a result, consumers are continuing to find ways to reduce their food bills, with Which? finding that 54% of consumers purchasing cheaper products than they would have prior to the cost-of-living crisis.

Do parents trust that foods for kids are healthy?​

The food and beverage industry is currently facing a major challenge – lack of consumer trust.

A recent report by the EIT Food Consumer Observatory​, found that just 46% of consumers surveyed trust food manufacturers. And worse, 27% of consumers actively distrust food manufacturers​. This distrust bleeds into all aspects of food manufacturing, including health claims, with a mere 44% believing the foods they are consuming are healthy​. As a result of this, consumers are less likely to believe health and nutritional claims on food packaging, and this extends to foods made specifically for children. But is this distrust fair? Food manufacturers say no.

“Kids food is highly regulated to ensure its safety and quality,” Tim Collins, managing director of children’s food brand, Ella’s Kitchen, told FoodNavigator. “The safety of little ones is our top priority, and we take our responsibilities seriously, setting strict nutritional guidelines that go beyond industry requirements. We only introduce new first food products that contain 10% less sugar than our range average and have reformulated products to reduce saturated fat and sugar.”

The lack of trust in foods formulated specifically for children is therefore concerning for food manufacturers.

“Our concern is that if parents are pushed outside the kid’s aisle, little ones will eat snacks which are not-age appropriate, not as strictly regulated, and contain far more fat, salt, and sugar. Kids products must continue to provide a healthier alternative,” adds Collins.

There’s also the issue of a child’s ability to eat foods which are not specifically formulated for their age.

"The introduction of age-appropriate textures is also vital, as chewing and swallowing skills are important for children’s oral and motor skills development,” a spokesperson for Nestlé, told FoodNavigator. The trust that parents, caregivers, and healthcare professionals place in us every day carries great responsibility and is something we take very seriously.”

So how can food manufacturers encourage parents and caregivers to continue to buy foods specifically designed for children?

Encouraging parents to buy foods formulated for kids​

Addressing the primary concern of parents and caregivers, in relation to foods for kids is the best way to encourage them to continue to buy them. And as we previously discovered, one of the primary concerns, is cost.

“The industry must focus on developing tasty products, which provide value for money and deliver good health outcomes,” says Ella’s Kitchen’s Collins. “We must prioritise the needs of both parents and their children.”

And it’s encouraging other brands to follow in their lead.

“As a B Corp organisation, we have a legal duty to put people and the planet on an equal footing with profit, and we encourage other companies to follow suit. We will continue to work with charity partners to advocate for policies to address child poverty, food insecurity and the climate crisis,” says Collins.

However, in spite of these efforts, market analysts are still predicting a shift in consumer behaviour towards more home cooking.

“The cost-of-living crisis is likely to increase the popularity of at-home meal occasions, offering opportunities for brands with strong family appeal. Affordable, nutrient-rich meal ideas can help reassure parents that their children are meeting their nutritional needs​, whilst products that contribute to five-a-day and fibre intake will also chime,” says Alice Pilkington, senior food and drink analyst for market insight firm, Mintel.

Though, these waters are again muddied, by the growing consumer trend towards choosing convenience foods over cooking​. This leads us to believe that, while consumer preferences are changing, the growing global population is absorbing the impact on food manufacturers, keeping the overall for foods formulated for kids, high.