The global diet soft drinks industry is worth a colossal $4.87bn and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.8% over the next five years, according to Grand View Research.
The market’s phenomenal success is driven primarily by rising obesity rates, leading consumers to seek lower-calorie alternatives to their favourite soft drinks.
But things could be about to change for the diet soft drinks industry, if negative associations to gut health are proven to be true. And if they are true, how will the industry adapt to survive?
Are diet drinks damaging to gut health?
Gut health has emerged as one of the biggest food and beverage trends of 2024, boasting an industry value of $51.62bn and a healthy (pun intended!) projected CAGR of 8.3% until 2030.
This impressive growth is a result of increasing consumer understanding about the importance of gut health in influencing overall health, and has led to a sharp increase in demand for gut-friendly foods and beverages.
“Consumer understanding of gut health has grown significantly in recent years, and we attribute this to various factors,” says Reshma Patel, marketing manager at Yakult UK. “While probiotics have been recognised globally for some time, it’s only relatively recently that scientific advancements have highlighted the profound impact of gut health on overall well-being. It extends way beyond digestion, with growing evidence revealing the interconnection of the body’s major organs, with the gut at the centre of this intricate system.”
And this growing demand has led to an explosion in new product development, including gut-friendly cereal bars, yoghurt drinks and gummies.
“Over the last ten years the patents and filings related to food and drink with probiotics added to them has just soared,” says Rick Miller, associate director for specialised nutrition at Mintel. “We’ve seen an exponential growth of probiotic infused products.”
But consumers aren’t just choosing foods and beverages that promote gut health, they’re also actively starting to avoid foods and beverages believed to damage it, which could be a problem for producers of diet soft drinks.
Diet drinks might not be as beneficial as we once thought
Chris Dubberley
“Diet drinks might not be as beneficial as we once thought,” says Chris Dubberley, a gut health expert from Incontinence Shop. “Research suggests the artificial sweeteners they contain could disrupt the natural balance of our gut bacteria. This disruption may influence how we control blood sugar and respond to insulin.”
And poor gut health has been linked to a whole range of issues, including autoimmune, digestive issues issues and an increased risk of developing colorectal cancer.
What’s more, one of the many reasons people opt for diet soft drinks over the ‘full fat’ option is to reduce the risks associated with high-sugar intake, such as type 2 diabetes. However, diet soft drinks could actually lead to an increased risk of developing this condition.
“Studies show that these drinks could change the environment in our gut, affecting important body functions like glucose regulation and insulin effectiveness,” says Dubberley. “These changes might increase the risk of developing insulin resistance, which is often a stepping stone to type 2 diabetes.”
What does this mean for the beverage industry?
In light of the boom in sales of all things gut health, this research will likely cause concern for food and beverage manufacturers who won’t want to be associated with bad gut health.
However, the food and beverage industry is heavily regulated, and all sweeteners used in products are approved by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). Furthermore, many consumers who drink diet soft drinks are aware that they’re not the ‘healthy’ choice, but they are deemed to be healthier. In short it’s unlikely we’ll see a major shift in consumer behaviour.
That being said, as with any changes in consumer behaviour, this new information does create NPD opportunities for the industry.
Beverage manufacturers have the chance to innovate in the diet drinks space, with reduced-sugar options, which don’t include artificial sweeteners.
“Gut health really is an important area within food and drink,” says Mintel’s Miller.
But don’t delay because if consumers did decide to turn against conventional diet drinks, the brands who are ready with the sweetener-free alternative, will dominate the market.
